A model to explore achieving Paris Agreement

A model to explore achieving Paris Agreement

A simplified approach to show next 10 year action is determinative

Forecasting how global emissions (GtCO2/yr) shall perform to meet what agreed in Paris last December is difficult.

Yet, all pathways pass through today’s P1 [2015, 37] -and its inertial trajectory from P0 – and end at P5 [2050, 0], ( Art. 4.).

Besides, according to Carbon Tracker, a limited carbon budget of 900 tCO2e must keep the area underneath the curve constant and equal to that volume; to modelize all these variables BlacktoGreen launched a simplified calculus that finally has come to the model (based on d3.js environment) shown here.

Move «peaking» over the green-shadowed area* to realize action beyond 2025 will be useless (either CO2 shall be removed from the atmosphere or fossil fuels shall be replaced with clean energy in less than 5 years). Enjoy it.

(*) Sorry! It does not work fine with MSExplorer/MSEdge. Want to know more details about calculation assumptions? Contact us.


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